Analysis: Has Illinois met its day of fiscal reckoning?

By Mary Massingale, Illinois Statehouse News

SPRINGFIELD – Last year, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn said he was an optimist in dealing with the state’s multi-billion dollar deficit. This year, he said he was a realist.

Reality bites.

Potential layoffs of 17,000 teachers and other school employees loom ahead as part of $2 billion in cuts. A required pension payment of more than $4 billion burdens the state’s shoulders. Borrowing nearly $5 billion adds to the red ink. And a proposed income tax increase of 33 percent to blunt the pain of budget cuts increases anxiety.

All serve as key elements in Quinn’s attempt to chisel away at a $13 billion budget hole for the upcoming fiscal year. That’s $13,000,000,000 – a double digit and nine zeroes.

“This is an ugly budget,” said state Sen. Dave Koehler, D-Peoria. “You just can’t sugarcoat it.”

Social service providers, hospitals, nursing homes and other businesses that deal with the state have gone unpaid for months, branding Illinois as a deadbeat.

“We’re literally putting people out of business because we’re not paying our bills,” said state Rep. Jim Sacia, R-Pecatonica.

Some lawmakers wonder if Illinois is headed towards the same fiscal fate as nearly bankrupt California.

“If we continue down this path much longer, we’re going to be at a point where it’s going to be hard to recover – no question about it,” said state Sen. Dave Syverson, R-Rockford.

The dismal outlook seems to permeate the entire Capitol, crossing even political party lines.

“It’s definitely gloomy and if we don’t take any real action and continue to let debt pile up, we could be in a bad place,” said state Sen. Mike Frerichs, D-Champaign.

This year's state budget speech is far from an actual solution, lawmakers agree, noting the presentation simply gives a framework for the governor and four legislative leaders to work with in stringing together some sort of financial plan.

“The governor and this General Assembly have to make some very difficult decisions that we won’t like to vote for,” said Rep. Dave Winters, R-Shirland. “But it’s the only way to keep this state government operating.”

But Illinois has a recent history of putting off difficult decisions, choosing instead to take the Scarlett O’Hara approach to budgeting: “I’ll worry about that tomorrow.”

But today apparently has caught up with tomorrow, as years of fiscal mismanagement under the previous, scandal-ridden Democratic leadership are now clashing with a Republican refusal to pitch in and help find a solution, according to an Illinois public policy expert.

“We’re looking for leadership that will level with people about the situation and will take the action that is required,” said Mike Lawrence, retired head of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale who also served as an aide to former Gov. Jim Edgar and worked as a statehouse reporter. “We have too many legislators who are only focused on re-election.”

And the next general election is less than eight months away, in a year in which the lingering national recession and high unemployment are gripping the thoughts of Illinois voters.

“In the last 12 months, this state has lost 250,000 jobs – that’s 650 a day,” said state Sen. Dale Righter, R-Mattoon. “That’s just bigger … than some of the communities in my district that would be wiped out all in one day.”

Illinois’ day of reckoning seems to have arrived, and a miracle doesn’t seem to be in the works, according to a pastor who has chosen the Illinois Capitol as his ministry.

“If Scripture is the revelation of divine wisdom, the fiscal statement of Illinois is simply the lack of its application,” said Pastor Shaun Lewis of Springfield. “We’re reaping what we’ve sown during years of mismanagement.”

However, some view the fiscal predicament as part of the job.

“Ours is a problem with revenue,” said state Sen. Mike Jacobs, D-East Moline, adding, “The world’s not coming to an end.”

While others hold onto a positive attitude.

“I’m an eternal optimist,” said state Sen. John Sullivan, D-Rushville. “I think that you have to be in this business.”

Still others walk the tight line between doom and reality, acknowledging the mistakes of the past while placing faith in the resiliency of the future.

“Let’s get the ship pointed in the right direction. Let’s tighten our belt as much as possible,” said state Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion. “Let’s figure out what our priorities are and let’s make the most with what we’ve got.”

And hope can never be discounted – even in Illinois.

“It’s hard to be optimistic, but we’ve got to hope that fiscal sanity will prevail – soon,” Lawrence said. “But I don’t expect to see it before the November election.”